Post-Gap Validation

A validation & avoid-list tool: tracks whether post-earnings gaps hold over 5-day price action. For gap-ups it distinguishes pump-and-dumps from genuine reratings; for gap-downs it separates reversals (dip-buys) from continued selloffs (avoids) — so you know which names to stay away from.

Total Analyzed
33
11 pending
Selloff (AVOID)
20
61% of total
Reversal (DIP-BUY)
10
30% of total
Uncertain
3
9% of total

Forward Returns by Classification

Empirical proof the classifier works — for gap-downs, a negative 5d return confirms the AVOID read held. Averages hidden until enough completed trackers exist. (min 5).

Classification5d Return20d Return5d Win RateTracked (n)
✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)+5.3%80%10
🚫 Selloff (AVOID)-8.1%5%20
⚠️ Uncertain3
TSSI🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
TSS, Inc.
Conf 95% · Gap -23.5% · Aug 14, 2026
AIRJ🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
AirJoule Technologies Corporation
Conf 95% · Gap -12.8% · Aug 14, 2026
YXT🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
YXT.COM Group Holding Limited
Conf 95% · Gap -35.0% · Aug 14, 2026
AVEX🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
AEVEX Corp.
Conf 95% · Gap -5.1% · Aug 13, 2026
SPIR🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Spire Global, Inc.
Conf 95% · Gap -10.7% · Aug 13, 2026
ONDS🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Ondas Inc.
Conf 95% · Gap -8.1% · Aug 13, 2026
FRMI🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Fermi Inc.
Conf 95% · Gap -6.6% · Aug 13, 2026
AADX🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc.
Conf 95% · Gap -7.3% · Aug 12, 2026
HIMS🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Hims & Hers Health, Inc.
Conf 95% · Gap -6.5% · Aug 11, 2026
SOC🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Sable Offshore Corp.
Conf 95% · Gap -6.7% · Aug 11, 2026
YETI🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
YETI Holdings, Inc.
Conf 94% · Gap -9.5% · Aug 13, 2026
EVC🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Entravision Communications Corporation
Conf 94% · Gap -13.6% · Aug 11, 2026
TPR🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Tapestry, Inc.
Conf 85% · Gap -13.7% · Aug 13, 2026
YSS🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
York Space Systems, Inc.
Conf 80% · Gap -12.6% · Aug 14, 2026
ACM🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
AECOM
Conf 80% · Gap -6.9% · Aug 11, 2026
CBRS🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Cerebras Systems Inc.
Conf 77% · Gap -15.7% · Aug 13, 2026
REZI🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Resideo Technologies, Inc.
Conf 69% · Gap -13.5% · Aug 13, 2026
OCTV🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Octave Intelligence plc
Conf 68% · Gap -14.3% · Aug 12, 2026
CSCO🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Cisco Systems, Inc.
Conf 66% · Gap -8.0% · Aug 13, 2026
PFGC🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Performance Food Group Company
Conf 66% · Gap -7.0% · Aug 12, 2026

How It Works

Gap Ups

🚫 Pump & Dump

  • • Gap fills >70% within 5 days
  • • Volume decays >60% (no follow-through)
  • • Lower highs pattern (distribution)
  • • Max drawdown >8% from gap close

✅ Genuine Rerating

  • • Gap holds (<20% fill)
  • • Volume sustained (<30% decay)
  • • Higher highs, peak close day 4-5
  • • Strong EPS beat or guidance raise

Gap Downs

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)

  • • Recovered >70% of the down-gap
  • • Selling volume decayed (panic exhausted)
  • • Higher lows held above the capitulation low
  • • Minimal further downside (<2%)

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)

  • • Recovery <20% — stayed down
  • • Sustained volume (continued distribution)
  • • Peak close day 1, lower lows after
  • • EPS miss or lowered guidance supporting the de-rating
Signal weights (both directions): Follow-Through 25% · Volume 20% · Price Trajectory 20% · Drawdown 15% · Fundamentals 20%
Classification requires ≥3 days of data; full confidence requires all 5 trading days. ≥60% directional score = decisive classification, otherwise Uncertain.
Post-Gap Validation — Gap-Up & Gap-Down Follow-Through | GapTracker