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KC

AVOID

Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-5.6%
TechnologyEPS Aug 19, 2026

Price Chart

Range
KC · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$12.37
Open
$11.68
Gap %
-5.6%
Close
$11.38
Day High
$11.68
Day Low
$11.36
Volume
497.0K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.3x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite43/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)52
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)45%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected 20d Return+0.5%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (18%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$11.38
Stop (gap-day low)
$11.36
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$10.49
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$11.58

Analysis

KC gapped down 5.6% (0.33× average volume). De-Rat Score: 43/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 45% [LOW] — expected +0.5% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (18%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 20, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-2.1%
5d Return
-6.9%
20d Return
-12.8%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score0.0
Selloff Score76.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
-72%
Further Downside
-10.3%
Max Recovery
+0.9%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$11.14$11.48$11.11755.0K
Day 2$10.42$10.80$10.382.11M
Day 3$10.51$10.65$10.451.55M
Day 4$10.23$10.51$10.211.58M
Day 5$10.59$10.85$10.521.30M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume-72% decay
    Volume sustained — only -72% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside10.3%
    Sank another 10.3% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral