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KLAR

AVOID

Klarna Group plc

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-24.7%
Financial ServicesEPS Aug 18, 2026

Price Chart

Range
KLAR · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$20.79
Open
$15.66
Gap %
-24.7%
Close
$15.68
Day High
$16.18
Day Low
$15.55
Volume
8.12M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.9x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite67/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)71
Volume Quality (25%)82
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)48%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected 20d Return+0.5%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (11%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Volume 1.9× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce)
  • Large 25% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$15.68
Stop (gap-day low)
$15.55
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$18.77
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$19.11

Analysis

KLAR gapped down 24.7% (1.95× average volume). De-Rat Score: 67/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 48% [LOW] — expected +0.5% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (11%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Volume 1.9× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce); Large 25% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 18, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-6.1%
5d Return
-9.0%
20d Return
-10.7%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence81%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score20.0
Selloff Score56.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
73%
Further Downside
-11.7%
Max Recovery
+-2.6%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$14.73$15.27$14.3917.67M
Day 2$14.00$14.76$13.8415.77M
Day 3$14.33$14.55$14.088.05M
Day 4$14.11$14.60$14.027.32M
Day 5$14.27$14.28$13.934.84M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume73% decay
    Volume dropped 73% from day 1 — panic selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside11.7%
    Sank another 11.7% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral