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ONDS

DIP-BUY

Ondas Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-8.1%
TechnologyEPS Aug 13, 2026

Price Chart

Range
ONDS · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$9.77
Open
$8.98
Gap %
-8.1%
Close
$9.17
Day High
$9.38
Day Low
$8.79
Volume
45.54M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.5x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite46/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)44
Volume Quality (25%)43
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)66%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (16%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$9.17
Stop (gap-day low)
$8.79
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$8.44
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$8.98

Analysis

ONDS gapped down 8.1% (0.54× average volume). De-Rat Score: 46/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 66% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (16%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 13, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+0.8%
5d Return
-8.6%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score0.0
Selloff Score76.0
Recovery
12%
Vol Decay
29%
Further Downside
-10.9%
Max Recovery
+5.1%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$9.24$9.64$9.0496.85M
Day 2$9.00$9.13$8.5269.74M
Day 3$9.06$9.31$8.5679.49M
Day 4$8.90$9.00$8.6272.04M
Day 5$8.38$8.94$8.1768.55M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery11.7% recovered
    Only 12% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume29% decay
    Volume sustained — only 29% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside10.9%
    Sank another 10.9% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral