Back to Gap-Down Screener

CRDO

DIP-BUY

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-8.7%
TechnologyEPS Sep 2, 2026

Price Chart

Range
CRDO · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$206.63
Open
$188.63
Gap %
-8.7%
Close
$180.55
Day High
$190.57
Day Low
$176.45
Volume
3.77M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.6x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite45/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)59
Volume Quality (25%)48
Earnings Quality (25%)25
Technical Context (20%)43

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)85%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+8.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Deeply below SMA50 (-12%): oversold mean-reversion — 77-82% historical bounce rate

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$180.55
Stop (gap-day low)
$176.45
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$234.57
SMA 200
$175.20
EMA 10
$219.97

Analysis

CRDO gapped down 8.7% (0.60× average volume). De-Rat Score: 45/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 85% [HIGH] — expected +8% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Deeply below SMA50 (-12%): oversold mean-reversion — 77-82% historical bounce rate. EPS surprise of 35.3% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Sep 2, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-9.1%
5d Return
-11.2%
20d Return
+16.4%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence87%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score14.0
Selloff Score52.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
50%
Further Downside
-11.8%
Max Recovery
+-1.4%
Peak Close
Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$164.17$171.13$164.1113.77M
Day 2$170.57$172.05$160.7510.76M
Day 3$167.75$178.00$167.2210.39M
Day 4$167.92$173.24$164.196.97M
Day 5$160.31$165.68$159.206.90M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume50% decay
    Moderate volume decline (50%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside11.8%
    Sank another 11.8% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 35.3%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal