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HIMS

DIP-BUY

Hims & Hers Health, Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-6.5%
HealthcareEPS Aug 10, 2026

Price Chart

Range
HIMS · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$31.77
Open
$29.71
Gap %
-6.5%
Close
$31.35
Day High
$31.79
Day Low
$29.41
Volume
18.43M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.1x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite55/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)29
Volume Quality (25%)85
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)62%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Volume 1.1× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce)

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$31.35
Stop (gap-day low)
$29.41
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$31.68
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$30.85

Analysis

HIMS gapped down 6.5% (1.13× average volume). De-Rat Score: 55/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 62% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 1.1× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 11, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-4.4%
5d Return
-12.6%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score4.0
Selloff Score56.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
53%
Further Downside
-12.7%
Max Recovery
+-1.1%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$29.97$30.99$29.2516.91M
Day 2$28.77$30.10$28.5412.72M
Day 3$28.15$29.30$28.109.03M
Day 4$28.61$28.73$27.5110.35M
Day 5$27.39$28.85$27.387.93M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume53% decay
    Moderate volume decline (53%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside12.7%
    Sank another 12.7% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral