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MRVL

DIP-BUY

Marvell Technology, Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-6.7%
TechnologyEPS Aug 27, 2026

Price Chart

Range
MRVL · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$241.45
Open
$225.31
Gap %
-6.7%
Close
$224.84
Day High
$228.88
Day Low
$219.12
Volume
10.65M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.3x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite42/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)42
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)51
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)69%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$224.84
Stop (gap-day low)
$219.12
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$228.70
SMA 200
$148.62
EMA 10
$232.83

Analysis

MRVL gapped down 6.7% (0.34× average volume). De-Rat Score: 42/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 69% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days. EPS surprise of -0.5% (miss).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 28, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-5.9%
5d Return
-0.6%
20d Return
+12.0%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence94%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score12.0
Selloff Score68.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
10%
Further Downside
-10.8%
Max Recovery
+-0.5%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$211.66$218.22$209.5323.65M
Day 2$210.39$210.45$200.6222.28M
Day 3$206.48$208.49$203.5015.22M
Day 4$208.83$212.77$201.1018.77M
Day 5$223.55$223.67$210.8721.22M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume10% decay
    Volume sustained — only 10% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside10.8%
    Sank another 10.8% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral