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CBRS

AVOID

Cerebras Systems Inc.

Mixed signals — conservative read

Gap Down
-15.7%
TechnologyEPS Aug 12, 2026

Price Chart

Range
CBRS · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$262.06
Open
$221.00
Gap %
-15.7%
Close
$230.60
Day High
$239.99
Day Low
$219.10
Volume
4.38M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.7x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite52/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)57
Volume Quality (25%)56
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)43

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)53%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected 20d Return+2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (26%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Large 16% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDMixed signals — conservative read
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$230.60
Stop (gap-day low)
$219.10
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$208.66
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$226.81

Analysis

CBRS gapped down 15.7% (0.70× average volume). De-Rat Score: 52/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 53% [LOW] — expected +2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (26%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Large 16% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 13, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-5.0%
5d Return
-9.0%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence77%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score11.5
Selloff Score27.0
Recovery
68%
Vol Decay
54%
Further Downside
-12.8%
Max Recovery
+13.2%
Peak Close
Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$218.98$229.00$215.7714.65M
Day 2$251.98$261.08$223.4414.90M
Day 3$220.01$241.71$214.5113.42M
Day 4$215.69$217.99$201.0011.02M
Day 5$209.85$213.80$202.886.70M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery68.0% recovered
    Partial recovery (68%) — ambiguous
    neutral
  • Volume54% decay
    Moderate volume decline (54%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside12.8%
    Sank another 12.8% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral