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GWRE

AVOID

Guidewire Software, Inc.

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-17.4%
TechnologyEPS Sep 3, 2026

Price Chart

Range
GWRE · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$202.86
Open
$167.55
Gap %
-17.4%
Close
$161.72
Day High
$168.89
Day Low
$161.54
Volume
396.6K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.3x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite45/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)83
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)25
Technical Context (20%)38

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)43%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected 20d Return+0.5%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (26%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Large 17% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$161.72
Stop (gap-day low)
$161.54
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$160.77
SMA 200
$157.06
EMA 10
$189.43

Analysis

GWRE gapped down 17.4% (0.31× average volume). De-Rat Score: 45/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 43% [AVOID] — expected +0.5% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (26%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Large 17% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base. EPS surprise of 33.3% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Sep 4, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-7.4%
5d Return
-5.4%
20d Return
+0.9%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence72%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score26.0
Selloff Score48.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
41%
Further Downside
-15.0%
Max Recovery
+0.1%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$149.71$161.81$147.762.84M
Day 2$142.24$148.33$142.072.05M
Day 3$140.09$147.22$139.701.33M
Day 4$140.92$142.44$137.441.99M
Day 5$153.00$154.04$145.321.69M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume41% decay
    Moderate volume decline (41%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside15.0%
    Sank another 15.0% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 33.3%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal