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REZI

DIP-BUY

Resideo Technologies, Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-13.5%
IndustrialsEPS Aug 12, 2026

Price Chart

Range
REZI · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$25.71
Open
$22.25
Gap %
-13.5%
Close
$21.25
Day High
$22.45
Day Low
$20.63
Volume
644.0K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.3x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite46/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)60
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)56%20d horizon
Tier:MEDIUM
Expected 20d Return+2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (11%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$21.25
Stop (gap-day low)
$20.63
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$23.13
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$24.54

Analysis

REZI gapped down 13.5% (0.30× average volume). De-Rat Score: 46/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 56% [MEDIUM] — expected +2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (11%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 13, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-3.5%
5d Return
-5.7%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence69%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score19.0
Selloff Score33.0
Recovery
7%
Vol Decay
31%
Further Downside
-6.6%
Max Recovery
+4.1%
Peak Close
Day 4

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$20.50$21.05$20.104.66M
Day 2$20.64$21.63$20.374.04M
Day 3$21.02$21.34$20.473.42M
Day 4$21.54$22.13$21.102.88M
Day 5$20.03$21.18$19.843.21M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery6.5% recovered
    Only 7% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume31% decay
    Moderate volume decline (31%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 4
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside6.6%
    Moderate further downside (6.6%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral