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SPIR

DIP-BUY

Spire Global, Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-10.7%
IndustrialsEPS Aug 12, 2026

Price Chart

Range
SPIR · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$14.74
Open
$13.16
Gap %
-10.7%
Close
$14.32
Day High
$14.66
Day Low
$13.25
Volume
108.8K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.1x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite40/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)45
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)48

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)82%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+8.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Wide 11% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds
  • Large 11% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$14.32
Stop (gap-day low)
$13.25
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$15.30
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$13.51

Analysis

SPIR gapped down 10.7% (0.10× average volume). De-Rat Score: 40/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 82% [HIGH] — expected +8% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Wide 11% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds; Large 11% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 13, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-2.6%
5d Return
-3.0%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score0.0
Selloff Score76.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
-4%
Further Downside
-9.6%
Max Recovery
+4.2%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$13.95$14.92$13.69581.7K
Day 2$13.74$14.48$13.64554.8K
Day 3$13.90$14.22$13.15577.9K
Day 4$13.70$13.87$13.26410.8K
Day 5$13.89$14.00$12.94602.9K

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume-4% decay
    Volume sustained — only -4% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside9.6%
    Sank another 9.6% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral