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TTAN

DIP-BUY

ServiceTitan, Inc.

Strong bounce probability (oversold mean-reversion)

Gap Down
-17.9%
TechnologyEPS Sep 8, 2026

Price Chart

Range
TTAN · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$81.58
Open
$67.00
Gap %
-17.9%
Close
$61.14
Day High
$69.45
Day Low
$60.57
Volume
3.38M
Vol vs 50d Avg
2.5x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite59/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)80
Volume Quality (25%)62
Earnings Quality (25%)25
Technical Context (20%)68

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)67%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Wide 13% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds
  • Large 18% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYStrong bounce probability (oversold mean-reversion)
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$61.14
Stop (gap-day low)
$60.57
vs SMA 200
Below
SMA 50
$83.98
SMA 200
$78.25
EMA 10
$85.68

Stage 3→4 break: this gap-down broke below the 200-SMA, confirming a potential distribution top.

Analysis

TTAN gapped down 17.9% (2.45× average volume). De-Rat Score: 59/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 67% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Wide 13% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds; Large 18% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base. EPS surprise of 56.0% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Sep 9, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-8.4%
5d Return
-4.0%
20d Return
+17.3%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score10.0
Selloff Score72.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
21%
Further Downside
-12.0%
Max Recovery
+-2.8%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$56.01$57.52$55.826.30M
Day 2$54.68$56.15$53.805.56M
Day 3$58.99$59.30$54.365.71M
Day 4$58.60$59.40$57.144.56M
Day 5$58.67$59.30$57.044.95M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume21% decay
    Volume sustained — only 21% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside12.0%
    Sank another 12.0% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 56.0%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal