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OCTV

AVOID

Octave Intelligence plc

Mixed signals — conservative read

Gap Down
-14.3%
TechnologyEPS Aug 12, 2026

Price Chart

Range
OCTV · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$19.43
Open
$16.66
Gap %
-14.3%
Close
$17.70
Day High
$17.87
Day Low
$16.66
Volume
1.53M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.1x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite60/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)44
Volume Quality (25%)82
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)54%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected 20d Return+2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Volume 1.1× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce)
  • Large 14% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDMixed signals — conservative read
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$17.70
Stop (gap-day low)
$16.66
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$17.80
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$18.61

Analysis

OCTV gapped down 14.3% (1.06× average volume). De-Rat Score: 60/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 54% [LOW] — expected +2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 1.1× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce); Large 14% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 12, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+6.8%
5d Return
+4.4%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence68%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score22.5
Selloff Score36.0
Recovery
70%
Vol Decay
9%
Further Downside
--0.2%
Max Recovery
+11.0%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$18.91$19.51$18.013.18M
Day 2$18.91$19.65$18.752.82M
Day 3$18.02$18.54$17.731.65M
Day 4$18.63$18.68$17.782.34M
Day 5$18.47$18.88$17.972.89M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery69.9% recovered
    Partial recovery (70%) — ambiguous
    neutral
  • Volume9% decay
    Volume sustained — only 9% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside-0.2%
    Minimal further downside (-0.2%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral