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AIRJ

AVOID

AirJoule Technologies Corporation

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-12.8%
IndustrialsEPS Aug 13, 2026

Price Chart

Range
AIRJ · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$6.32
Open
$5.51
Gap %
-12.8%
Close
$6.05
Day High
$6.10
Day Low
$5.50
Volume
1.03M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.6x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite43/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)40
Volume Quality (25%)48
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)43

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)45%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected 20d Return+0.5%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (33%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Wide 11% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds
  • Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$6.05
Stop (gap-day low)
$5.50
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$4.76
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$5.83

Analysis

AIRJ gapped down 12.8% (0.60× average volume). De-Rat Score: 43/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 45% [LOW] — expected +0.5% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (33%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Wide 11% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds; Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 14, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-4.0%
5d Return
-17.0%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score0.0
Selloff Score76.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
23%
Further Downside
-18.3%
Max Recovery
+6.6%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$5.81$6.45$5.771.77M
Day 2$5.32$5.77$5.261.68M
Day 3$5.26$5.38$4.981.69M
Day 4$5.04$5.24$4.981.63M
Day 5$5.02$5.15$4.941.37M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume23% decay
    Volume sustained — only 23% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside18.3%
    Sank another 18.3% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral