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PFGC

DIP-BUY

Performance Food Group Company

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-7.0%
Consumer DefensiveEPS Aug 12, 2026

Price Chart

Range
PFGC · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$113.79
Open
$105.79
Gap %
-7.0%
Close
$106.99
Day High
$109.70
Day Low
$106.00
Volume
542.4K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.4x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite46/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)55
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)62%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$106.99
Stop (gap-day low)
$106.00
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$108.59
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$112.53

Analysis

PFGC gapped down 7.0% (0.35× average volume). De-Rat Score: 46/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 62% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 12, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-2.3%
5d Return
-3.4%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence66%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score19.0
Selloff Score29.0
Recovery
4%
Vol Decay
54%
Further Downside
-3.6%
Max Recovery
+1.0%
Peak Close
Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$104.48$108.11$103.573.36M
Day 2$107.25$107.35$103.271.88M
Day 3$104.68$107.14$104.222.04M
Day 4$104.54$106.21$104.011.42M
Day 5$103.34$105.60$103.171.53M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery3.8% recovered
    Only 4% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume54% decay
    Moderate volume decline (54%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside3.6%
    Moderate further downside (3.6%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral