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LULU

AVOID

lululemon athletica inc.

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-19.4%
Consumer CyclicalEPS Sep 3, 2026

Price Chart

Range
LULU · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$121.77
Open
$98.20
Gap %
-19.4%
Close
$101.81
Day High
$102.05
Day Low
$97.99
Volume
10.51M
Vol vs 50d Avg
3.0x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite46/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)47
Volume Quality (25%)40
Earnings Quality (25%)39
Technical Context (20%)62

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)36%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected 20d Return-2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Volume 3.0× avg: capitulation/exhaustion
  • Large 19% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$101.81
Stop (gap-day low)
$97.99
vs SMA 200
Below
SMA 50
$118.43
SMA 200
$152.78
EMA 10
$116.40

Analysis

LULU gapped down 19.4% (3.04× average volume). De-Rat Score: 46/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 36% [AVOID] — expected -2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 3.0× avg: capitulation/exhaustion; Large 19% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base. EPS surprise of 8.7% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Sep 4, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+1.4%
5d Return
-1.5%
20d Return
-8.5%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence78%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score17.0
Selloff Score41.0
Recovery
7%
Vol Decay
57%
Further Downside
-6.0%
Max Recovery
+1.9%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$103.19$103.75$100.1811.22M
Day 2$99.72$102.00$97.559.58M
Day 3$96.88$99.62$95.677.87M
Day 4$98.97$99.03$96.805.61M
Day 5$100.30$102.18$99.254.80M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery6.9% recovered
    Only 7% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume57% decay
    Moderate volume decline (57%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside6.0%
    Moderate further downside (6.0%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 8.7%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal