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AVEX

DIP-BUY

AEVEX Corp.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-5.1%
IndustrialsEPS Aug 13, 2026

Price Chart

Range
AVEX · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$22.75
Open
$21.59
Gap %
-5.1%
Close
$21.68
Day High
$22.05
Day Low
$20.50
Volume
351.1K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.1x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite33/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)28
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)43

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)64%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (22%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$21.68
Stop (gap-day low)
$20.50
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$18.63
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$20.57

Analysis

AVEX gapped down 5.1% (0.15× average volume). De-Rat Score: 33/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 64% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (22%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 13, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-0.6%
5d Return
-16.6%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score4.0
Selloff Score56.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
55%
Further Downside
-18.8%
Max Recovery
+8.9%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$21.54$23.62$20.762.30M
Day 2$20.22$22.11$19.701.47M
Day 3$19.91$21.15$19.301.05M
Day 4$18.90$19.99$18.66766.7K
Day 5$18.08$18.88$17.601.03M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume55% decay
    Moderate volume decline (55%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside18.8%
    Sank another 18.8% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral