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BRZE

AVOID

Braze, Inc.

Mixed signals — conservative read

Gap Down
-13.6%
TechnologyEPS Sep 8, 2026

Price Chart

Range
BRZE · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$30.31
Open
$26.18
Gap %
-13.6%
Close
$25.34
Day High
$26.26
Day Low
$24.86
Volume
1.48M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.6x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite56/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)67
Volume Quality (25%)49
Earnings Quality (25%)61
Technical Context (20%)45

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)50%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected 20d Return+2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (11%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Large 14% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDMixed signals — conservative read
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$25.34
Stop (gap-day low)
$24.86
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$27.39
SMA 200
$24.74
EMA 10
$30.76

Analysis

BRZE gapped down 13.6% (0.61× average volume). De-Rat Score: 56/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 50% [LOW] — expected +2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (11%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Large 14% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base. EPS surprise of -8.6% (miss).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Sep 9, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-4.3%
5d Return
-1.9%
20d Return
+12.3%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence66%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score19.0
Selloff Score29.0
Recovery
5%
Vol Decay
46%
Further Downside
-7.7%
Max Recovery
+2.5%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$24.26$24.50$23.383.59M
Day 2$23.94$24.72$23.423.50M
Day 3$25.60$25.63$24.002.83M
Day 4$25.42$25.97$24.881.55M
Day 5$24.87$25.56$24.781.94M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery5.2% recovered
    Only 5% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume46% decay
    Moderate volume decline (46%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside7.7%
    Moderate further downside (7.7%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral