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YSS
DIP-BUYYork Space Systems, Inc.
Mixed signals — conservative read
Gap Down
-12.6%
IndustrialsEPS Aug 13, 2026
Price Chart
Range
YSS · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200
Gap-Down Information
Prev Close
$11.51
Open
$10.06
Gap %
-12.6%
Close
$9.72
Day High
$10.72
Day Low
$9.68
Volume
1.48M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.8x
Score Analysis
Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)
Composite57/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)69
Volume Quality (25%)62
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)42
Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)
P(bounce)60%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
- Deeply below SMA50 (-45%): oversold mean-reversion — 77-82% historical bounce rate
- Wide 10% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds
- Volume 0.8× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%)
- Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base
Verdict & Playbook
DIP-BUYMixed signals — conservative read
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$9.72
Stop (gap-day low)
$9.68
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$21.03
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$11.93
Analysis
YSS gapped down 12.6% (0.78× average volume). De-Rat Score: 57/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 60% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Deeply below SMA50 (-45%): oversold mean-reversion — 77-82% historical bounce rate; Wide 10% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds; Volume 0.8× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%); Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base.
Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 14, 2026
Outcome Tracking
1d Return
+9.7%
5d Return
-4.1%
20d Return
—
Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through
🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence80%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score11.5
Selloff Score31.0
Recovery
53%
Vol Decay
47%
Further Downside
-8.5%
Max Recovery
+20.7%
Peak Close
Day 1
Day-by-Day Price Action
| Day | Close | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | $10.66 | $11.73 | $10.36 | 4.39M |
| Day 2 | $10.42 | $10.74 | $9.40 | 5.03M |
| Day 3 | $10.18 | $10.44 | $9.88 | 3.78M |
| Day 4 | $9.20 | $10.00 | $8.89 | 5.47M |
| Day 5 | $9.32 | $9.72 | $9.15 | 2.32M |
Signal Breakdown
- Recovery52.5% recoveredneutralPartial recovery (53%) — ambiguous
- Volume47% decayneutralModerate volume decline (47%)
- Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1selloffPeak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
- Further Downside8.5%selloffSank another 8.5% from gap close — falling knife
- Fundamental QualityInsufficient dataneutralNo fundamental data to evaluate