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FRMI

DIP-BUY

Fermi Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-6.6%
Real EstateEPS Aug 13, 2026

Price Chart

Range
FRMI · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$7.60
Open
$7.10
Gap %
-6.6%
Close
$7.04
Day High
$7.37
Day Low
$6.90
Volume
7.19M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.4x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite43/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)46
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)75%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+6.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$7.04
Stop (gap-day low)
$6.90
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$7.09
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$6.67

Analysis

FRMI gapped down 6.6% (0.36× average volume). De-Rat Score: 43/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 75% [HIGH] — expected +6% over 20 trading days.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 13, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-9.1%
5d Return
-15.2%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score0.0
Selloff Score76.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
4%
Further Downside
-22.7%
Max Recovery
+-4.5%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$6.40$6.72$6.3217.30M
Day 2$6.14$6.41$6.0721.82M
Day 3$5.74$6.05$5.7318.84M
Day 4$5.76$5.82$5.4422.02M
Day 5$5.97$5.98$5.6716.65M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume4% decay
    Volume sustained — only 4% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside22.7%
    Sank another 22.7% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral