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ACM

DIP-BUY

AECOM

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-6.9%
IndustrialsEPS Aug 10, 2026

Price Chart

Range
ACM · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$73.30
Open
$68.25
Gap %
-6.9%
Close
$67.56
Day High
$69.42
Day Low
$63.67
Volume
4.78M
Vol vs 50d Avg
2.6x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite48/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)34
Volume Quality (25%)55
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)57%20d horizon
Tier:MEDIUM
Expected 20d Return+2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$67.56
Stop (gap-day low)
$63.67
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$70.27
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$72.58

Analysis

ACM gapped down 6.9% (2.61× average volume). De-Rat Score: 48/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 57% [MEDIUM] — expected +2% over 20 trading days.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 11, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-9.7%
5d Return
-8.6%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence80%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score16.0
Selloff Score44.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
54%
Further Downside
-10.7%
Max Recovery
+-2.7%
Peak Close
Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$61.04$65.76$60.924.16M
Day 2$63.61$63.73$60.353.07M
Day 3$63.11$63.85$62.241.84M
Day 4$62.22$63.02$61.402.02M
Day 5$61.72$62.79$61.651.90M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume54% decay
    Moderate volume decline (54%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside10.7%
    Sank another 10.7% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral