Back to Gap-Down Screener

FN

AVOID

Fabrinet

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-14.2%
TechnologyEPS Aug 17, 2026

Price Chart

Range
FN · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$598.58
Open
$513.70
Gap %
-14.2%
Close
$477.52
Day High
$520.00
Day Low
$467.83
Volume
2.54M
Vol vs 50d Avg
2.6x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite58/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)67
Volume Quality (25%)56
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)35%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected 20d Return-2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (11%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Wide 10% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds
  • Large 14% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$477.52
Stop (gap-day low)
$467.83
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$538.52
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$536.40

Analysis

FN gapped down 14.2% (2.59× average volume). De-Rat Score: 58/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 35% [AVOID] — expected -2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (11%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Wide 10% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds; Large 14% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 18, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-4.8%
5d Return
-9.6%
20d Return
-17.8%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score4.0
Selloff Score56.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
50%
Further Downside
-13.4%
Max Recovery
+4.1%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$454.55$496.95$448.791.65M
Day 2$444.87$457.00$437.121.12M
Day 3$436.67$449.90$424.971.23M
Day 4$421.14$429.28$413.681.14M
Day 5$431.54$434.00$423.87817.1K

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume50% decay
    Moderate volume decline (50%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside13.4%
    Sank another 13.4% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral