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AADX

DIP-BUY

Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-7.3%
IndustrialsEPS Aug 12, 2026

Price Chart

Range
AADX · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$21.52
Open
$19.95
Gap %
-7.3%
Close
$19.28
Day High
$20.69
Day Low
$19.11
Volume
244.4K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.1x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite46/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)60
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)48

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)80%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+8.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$19.28
Stop (gap-day low)
$19.11
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
—
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$20.07

Analysis

AADX gapped down 7.3% (0.15× average volume). De-Rat Score: 46/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 80% [HIGH] — expected +8% over 20 trading days.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 12, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-2.5%
5d Return
-10.4%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score0.0
Selloff Score76.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
0%
Further Downside
-10.9%
Max Recovery
+0.9%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$18.80$19.46$18.431.24M
Day 2$17.92$19.00$17.911.16M
Day 3$18.12$18.50$17.76968.8K
Day 4$17.79$18.95$17.321.34M
Day 5$17.27$18.02$17.171.23M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume0% decay
    Volume sustained — only 0% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside10.9%
    Sank another 10.9% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral