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SOC

DIP-BUY

Sable Offshore Corp.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-6.7%
EnergyEPS Aug 10, 2026

Price Chart

Range
SOC · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$5.09
Open
$4.75
Gap %
-6.7%
Close
$4.61
Day High
$4.89
Day Low
$4.21
Volume
13.27M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.2x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite54/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)37
Volume Quality (25%)88
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)42

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)85%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+8.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Deeply below SMA50 (-26%): oversold mean-reversion — 77-82% historical bounce rate
  • Wide 14% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds
  • Volume 1.2× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce)

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$4.61
Stop (gap-day low)
$4.21
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$6.91
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$4.71

Analysis

SOC gapped down 6.7% (1.20× average volume). De-Rat Score: 54/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 85% [HIGH] — expected +8% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Deeply below SMA50 (-26%): oversold mean-reversion — 77-82% historical bounce rate; Wide 14% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds; Volume 1.2× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 11, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-5.0%
5d Return
-13.4%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score0.0
Selloff Score76.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
-9%
Further Downside
-18.0%
Max Recovery
+7.8%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$4.38$4.97$4.248.66M
Day 2$4.03$4.31$3.8612.46M
Day 3$4.15$4.30$4.0610.66M
Day 4$4.02$4.17$3.9412.15M
Day 5$3.99$4.06$3.789.41M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume-9% decay
    Volume sustained — only -9% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside18.0%
    Sank another 18.0% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral