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TPR

AVOID

Tapestry, Inc.

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-13.7%
Consumer CyclicalEPS Aug 13, 2026

Price Chart

Range
TPR · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$153.74
Open
$132.70
Gap %
-13.7%
Close
$131.23
Day High
$135.78
Day Low
$127.78
Volume
1.92M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.7x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite57/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)58
Volume Quality (25%)60
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)38%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected 20d Return-2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Volume 0.7× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%)
  • Large 14% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$131.23
Stop (gap-day low)
$127.78
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$146.59
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$152.29

Analysis

TPR gapped down 13.7% (0.75× average volume). De-Rat Score: 57/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 38% [AVOID] — expected -2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 0.7× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%); Large 14% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 13, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-2.1%
5d Return
-1.4%
20d Return
-9.7%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence85%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score15.0
Selloff Score49.0
Recovery
2%
Vol Decay
27%
Further Downside
-4.2%
Max Recovery
+2.8%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$128.49$129.39$125.665.54M
Day 2$128.53$129.51$126.474.62M
Day 3$131.76$134.84$128.764.18M
Day 4$131.22$134.42$130.502.78M
Day 5$129.33$130.49$127.464.07M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery2.4% recovered
    Only 2% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume27% decay
    Volume sustained — only 27% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside4.2%
    Moderate further downside (4.2%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral