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CSCO

DIP-BUY

Cisco Systems, Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-8.0%
TechnologyEPS Aug 12, 2026

Price Chart

Range
CSCO · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$123.88
Open
$113.93
Gap %
-8.0%
Close
$114.26
Day High
$114.89
Day Low
$111.48
Volume
12.58M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.5x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite46/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)38
Volume Quality (25%)44
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)57%20d horizon
Tier:MEDIUM
Expected 20d Return+2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$114.26
Stop (gap-day low)
$111.48
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$117.55
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$119.05

Analysis

CSCO gapped down 8.0% (0.55× average volume). De-Rat Score: 46/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 57% [MEDIUM] — expected +2% over 20 trading days.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 13, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-2.3%
5d Return
-4.1%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence66%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score19.0
Selloff Score29.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
57%
Further Downside
-4.4%
Max Recovery
+-0.4%
Peak Close
Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$111.68$113.68$110.0629.42M
Day 2$112.90$113.85$110.8122.79M
Day 3$111.61$112.75$110.3620.06M
Day 4$110.55$112.38$110.5118.02M
Day 5$109.59$111.58$109.2312.64M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume57% decay
    Moderate volume decline (57%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside4.4%
    Moderate further downside (4.4%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral