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MDB

AVOID

MongoDB, Inc.

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-12.9%
TechnologyEPS Sep 1, 2026

Price Chart

Range
MDB · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$434.21
Open
$378.38
Gap %
-12.9%
Close
$373.66
Day High
$393.00
Day Low
$371.00
Volume
1.35M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.9x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite55/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)73
Volume Quality (25%)71
Earnings Quality (25%)25
Technical Context (20%)45

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)15%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected 20d Return-2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (17%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Volume 0.9× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%)
  • Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$373.66
Stop (gap-day low)
$371.00
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$370.28
SMA 200
$342.13
EMA 10
$420.78

Analysis

MDB gapped down 12.9% (0.89× average volume). De-Rat Score: 55/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 15% [AVOID] — expected -2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (17%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Volume 0.9× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%); Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base. EPS surprise of 66.2% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Sep 2, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+2.9%
5d Return
+0.1%
20d Return
-5.9%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
Confidence78%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score17.0
Selloff Score41.0
Recovery
18%
Vol Decay
39%
Further Downside
-5.2%
Max Recovery
+4.8%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$384.45$391.61$375.502.66M
Day 2$368.74$381.25$365.902.07M
Day 3$356.00$364.17$354.112.49M
Day 4$358.38$365.49$354.192.38M
Day 5$373.87$378.21$356.011.64M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery17.8% recovered
    Only 18% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume39% decay
    Moderate volume decline (39%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside5.2%
    Moderate further downside (5.2%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 66.2%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal