Post-Gap Validation
A validation & avoid-list tool: tracks whether post-earnings gaps hold over 5-day price action. For gap-ups it distinguishes pump-and-dumps from genuine reratings; for gap-downs it separates reversals (dip-buys) from continued selloffs (avoids) — so you know which names to stay away from.
Total Analyzed
233
74 pending
Pump & Dump
73
31% of total
Genuine Rerating
123
53% of total
Uncertain
37
16% of total
Forward Returns by Classification
Empirical proof the classifier works — avoid the 🚫 P&D-flagged names. Averages hidden until enough completed trackers exist. (min 5).
| Classification | 5d Return | 20d Return | 5d Win Rate | Tracked (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🚫 Pump & Dump | -9.5% | — | 8% | 73 |
| ✅ Genuine Rerating | +10.5% | — | 88% | 123 |
| ⚠️ Uncertain | +3.8% | — | 38% | 37 |
| Ticker | Verdict | Confidence | Gap % | Detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 59% | +9.8% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| PWP Perella Weinberg Partners | ⚠️ Uncertain | 59% | +32.2% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| BAX Baxter International Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 59% | +17.4% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| BIIB Biogen Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 59% | +5.3% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 59% | +7.3% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 59% | +5.4% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| TCOM Trip.com Group Limited | ⚠️ Uncertain | 59% | +5.5% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 58% | +10.7% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| VSNT Versant Media Group, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 58% | +11.9% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| COHU Cohu, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 58% | +10.6% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| ACN Accenture plc | ⚠️ Uncertain | 58% | +7.1% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ADSK Autodesk, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 58% | +7.2% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ZWS Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | ⚠️ Uncertain | 58% | +10.4% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| BKR Baker Hughes Company | ⚠️ Uncertain | 58% | +8.1% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 58% | +15.8% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 57% | +5.1% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| AEHR Aehr Test Systems, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 57% | +36.3% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| ONDS Ondas Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 56% | +5.8% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 56% | +9.7% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| CIFR Cipher Digital Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 56% | +11.6% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| CTRI Centuri Holdings, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 56% | +5.3% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| CVE Cenovus Energy Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 56% | +5.6% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ALT Altimmune, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 56% | +6.8% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| GDDY GoDaddy Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 56% | +8.8% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| TER Teradyne, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 56% | +8.2% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 55% | +12.3% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| EFX EFX | ⚠️ Uncertain | 55% | +5.2% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| AVTR Avantor, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 52% | +16.7% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| SOLV Solventum Corporation | ⚠️ Uncertain | 52% | +7.0% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ARX Accelerant Holdings | ⚠️ Uncertain | 50% | +44.1% | Aug 13, 2026 |
| LEGN Legend Biotech Corporation | ⚠️ Uncertain | 50% | +5.4% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| DEO Diageo plc | ⚠️ Uncertain | 50% | +6.3% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 50% | +12.5% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| MCK McKesson Corporation | ⚠️ Uncertain | 50% | +5.9% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| AMIX Autonomix Medical, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 50% | +54.1% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| TRU TransUnion | ⚠️ Uncertain | 50% | +9.9% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| AADX Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 50% | +6.1% | Jul 27, 2026 |
RIOT⚠️ Uncertain
Riot Platforms, Inc.
Conf 59% · Gap +9.8% · Jul 31, 2026
PWP⚠️ Uncertain
Perella Weinberg Partners
Conf 59% · Gap +32.2% · Jul 31, 2026
BAX⚠️ Uncertain
Baxter International Inc.
Conf 59% · Gap +17.4% · Jul 30, 2026
BIIB⚠️ Uncertain
Biogen Inc.
Conf 59% · Gap +5.3% · Jul 29, 2026
HCA⚠️ Uncertain
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
Conf 59% · Gap +7.3% · Jul 29, 2026
WSM⚠️ Uncertain
Williams-Sonoma, Inc.
Conf 59% · Gap +5.4% · Jul 27, 2026
TCOM⚠️ Uncertain
Trip.com Group Limited
Conf 59% · Gap +5.5% · Jul 20, 2026
SMCI⚠️ Uncertain
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Conf 58% · Gap +10.7% · Aug 12, 2026
VSNT⚠️ Uncertain
Versant Media Group, Inc.
Conf 58% · Gap +11.9% · Aug 7, 2026
COHU⚠️ Uncertain
Cohu, Inc.
Conf 58% · Gap +10.6% · Jul 30, 2026
ACN⚠️ Uncertain
Accenture plc
Conf 58% · Gap +7.1% · Jul 29, 2026
ADSK⚠️ Uncertain
Autodesk, Inc.
Conf 58% · Gap +7.2% · Jul 29, 2026
ZWS⚠️ Uncertain
Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation
Conf 58% · Gap +10.4% · Jul 29, 2026
BKR⚠️ Uncertain
Baker Hughes Company
Conf 58% · Gap +8.1% · Jul 27, 2026
PYPL⚠️ Uncertain
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Conf 58% · Gap +15.8% · Jul 15, 2026
ADBE⚠️ Uncertain
Adobe Inc.
Conf 57% · Gap +5.1% · Jul 29, 2026
AEHR⚠️ Uncertain
Aehr Test Systems, Inc.
Conf 57% · Gap +36.3% · Jul 15, 2026
ONDS⚠️ Uncertain
Ondas Inc.
Conf 56% · Gap +5.8% · Aug 14, 2026
LITE⚠️ Uncertain
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Conf 56% · Gap +9.7% · Aug 12, 2026
CIFR⚠️ Uncertain
Cipher Digital Inc.
Conf 56% · Gap +11.6% · Jul 30, 2026
CTRI⚠️ Uncertain
Centuri Holdings, Inc.
Conf 56% · Gap +5.3% · Jul 30, 2026
CVE⚠️ Uncertain
Cenovus Energy Inc.
Conf 56% · Gap +5.6% · Jul 29, 2026
ALT⚠️ Uncertain
Altimmune, Inc.
Conf 56% · Gap +6.8% · Jul 28, 2026
GDDY⚠️ Uncertain
GoDaddy Inc.
Conf 56% · Gap +8.8% · Jul 27, 2026
TER⚠️ Uncertain
Teradyne, Inc.
Conf 56% · Gap +8.2% · Jul 21, 2026
CRWV⚠️ Uncertain
CoreWeave, Inc.
Conf 55% · Gap +12.3% · Jul 30, 2026
EFX⚠️ Uncertain
EFX
Conf 55% · Gap +5.2% · Jul 27, 2026
AVTR⚠️ Uncertain
Avantor, Inc.
Conf 52% · Gap +16.7% · Jul 30, 2026
SOLV⚠️ Uncertain
Solventum Corporation
Conf 52% · Gap +7.0% · Jul 29, 2026
ARX⚠️ Uncertain
Accelerant Holdings
Conf 50% · Gap +44.1% · Aug 13, 2026
LEGN⚠️ Uncertain
Legend Biotech Corporation
Conf 50% · Gap +5.4% · Aug 11, 2026
DEO⚠️ Uncertain
Diageo plc
Conf 50% · Gap +6.3% · Aug 7, 2026
AMZN⚠️ Uncertain
Amazon.com, Inc.
Conf 50% · Gap +12.5% · Jul 31, 2026
MCK⚠️ Uncertain
McKesson Corporation
Conf 50% · Gap +5.9% · Jul 29, 2026
AMIX⚠️ Uncertain
Autonomix Medical, Inc.
Conf 50% · Gap +54.1% · Jul 29, 2026
TRU⚠️ Uncertain
TransUnion
Conf 50% · Gap +9.9% · Jul 29, 2026
AADX⚠️ Uncertain
Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc.
Conf 50% · Gap +6.1% · Jul 27, 2026
How It Works
Gap Ups
🚫 Pump & Dump
- • Gap fills >70% within 5 days
- • Volume decays >60% (no follow-through)
- • Lower highs pattern (distribution)
- • Max drawdown >8% from gap close
✅ Genuine Rerating
- • Gap holds (<20% fill)
- • Volume sustained (<30% decay)
- • Higher highs, peak close day 4-5
- • Strong EPS beat or guidance raise
Gap Downs
✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
- • Recovered >70% of the down-gap
- • Selling volume decayed (panic exhausted)
- • Higher lows held above the capitulation low
- • Minimal further downside (<2%)
🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
- • Recovery <20% — stayed down
- • Sustained volume (continued distribution)
- • Peak close day 1, lower lows after
- • EPS miss or lowered guidance supporting the de-rating
Signal weights (both directions): Follow-Through 25% · Volume 20% · Price Trajectory 20% · Drawdown 15% · Fundamentals 20%
Classification requires ≥3 days of data; full confidence requires all 5 trading days. ≥60% directional score = decisive classification, otherwise Uncertain.
Classification requires ≥3 days of data; full confidence requires all 5 trading days. ≥60% directional score = decisive classification, otherwise Uncertain.