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PWP

resolved

Perella Weinberg Partners

Gap
+32.2%
Financial ServicesEPS Jul 31, 2026

Price Chart

Range
PWP · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
Prev Close
$14.91
Open
$19.71
Gap %
+32.2%
Close
$17.65
Day High
$19.71
Day Low
$16.27
Volume
3.48M
Vol vs 50d Avg
2.6x
Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite53/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)58
Volume Quality (25%)58
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)45

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)50%20d horizon
Tier:MEDIUM
Expected Return+0.7%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
13.50
PEG Ratio
1.10
FCF Trend
rising
Buyback
No

AI Thesis

Perella Weinberg Partners' massive 32% gap up signals a fundamental re-rating of this boutique M&A advisory franchise. The most likely catalyst is a blowout quarter driven by accelerating M&A advisory revenue, as the firm sits at the intersection of a reopening deals pipeline. PWP has historically been one of the more pure-play publicly traded M&A advisory names, meaning its revenue and earnings carry high operational leverage when deal volume rebounds. A gap of this magnitude suggests Wall Street is dramatically revising forward estimates — not just for one quarter but for the entire backlog conversion cycle. Boutique advisory firms trade on fee backlog and announced-deal pipelines, and this move implies the market sees multi-quarter revenue visibility improving sharply. The rerating thesis is reinforced by PWP's historically depressed valuation coming into this print. Trading well below its peers on forward P/E, the stock likely carried significant skepticism about M&A recovery timing. A 32% gap at 2.56x volume suggests institutional repositioning — not just retail momentum — which typically indicates sell-side analysts are raising numbers and targets in concert. The key question for sustained upside is whether compensation ratios remain disciplined (i.e., the firm isn't just paying out all incremental revenue to bankers), which would drive disproportionate EPS and FCF growth relative to revenue gains.

Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Aug 7, 2026

Catalysts

  • Strong M&A advisory revenue beat suggesting broader deal pipeline reopening
  • Restructuring advisory backlog converting to recognized revenue at higher-than-expected rates
  • Margin expansion from operating leverage as fixed costs spread over higher revenue base
  • Possible upward revision to full-year guidance reflecting improved deal visibility
  • Capital markets advisory (equity/debt underwriting) recovery adding incremental high-margin revenue
  • Sell-side analyst target price upgrades triggering institutional repositioning

Risks

  • M&A advisory revenue is inherently lumpy and non-recurring — one strong quarter doesn't guarantee forward pipeline
  • High compensation ratios typical of boutique advisory (60-70% of revenue) limit operating margin expansion
  • Macro risk: any economic slowdown or rate spike could freeze deal activity and collapse backlog
  • Stock gapped to $19.71 open but is now at $17.39 — the 12% pullback from open suggests profit-taking and potential exhaustion
  • No confirmed 200-SMA reclaim — technical foundation for sustained upside may not be established
  • Key banker/personnel departures could take revenue-generating client relationships elsewhere
  • Competitive pressure from larger bulge-bracket firms re-entering middle-market advisory

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Consolidation Entry
Entry Price
$17.87
Stop Loss
$16.27
vs SMA 200
SMA 50
$16.11
SMA 200
EMA 10
$15.86

Forward Returns

1-Day
-12.9%
5-Day
-11.2%
20-Day
60-Day
Max Gain
-9.3%
Max Drawdown
-15.8%

Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain
Confidence59%
Days Tracked5/5
Pump & Dump Score22.5
Rerating Score32.0
Gap Fill
22%
Vol Decay
18%
Max Drawdown
-5.9%
Max Gain
+1.2%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$17.17$17.87$16.601.81M
Day 2$17.05$17.80$17.001.46M
Day 3$17.32$17.55$17.051.12M
Day 4$17.06$17.67$16.95718.5K
📍 Day 5$17.50$17.74$17.151.47M

Signal Breakdown

Gap Fill21.9% erased

Gap partially filled (22%) — ambiguous

8w
Volume Decay18% decline

Volume sustained — only 18% decline suggests continued accumulation

20w
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5

Mixed price trajectory — no clear trend

12w
Max Drawdown5.9%

Moderate drawdown (5.9%)

3w
Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

0w

Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026