MU

resolved

Micron Technology, Inc.

Gap

+5.4%

TechnologyEPS Sep 23, 2026

Price Chart

Range

MU · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current

—

Prev Close

$1043.96

Open

$1099.94

Gap %

+5.4%

$1091.11

Day High

$1105.50

Day Low

$1086.19

Volume

3.60M

Vol vs 50d Avg

0.1x

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite46/ 100

Gap Quality (30%)39

Volume Quality (25%)25

Earnings Quality (25%)65

Technical Context (20%)57

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)54%20d horizon

Tier:MEDIUM

Expected Return+0.7%

Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Model 3: Tail Probability (Runner)

P(runner)16.5%60d ≥ +20%

Tier:MODERATE← base WEAK

Bounced above anchored VWAP+0.0%

Frozen walk-forward logistic model (OOS AUC 0.64–0.68). Ranks the fat tail — many small losses, a few huge 60-day runners. STRONG tier historically hit ~44% (vs 25% base). A ranking tool, not a certainty.▲ Quick bounce back above gap-anchored VWAP after closing below — post-gap confirmation.

Forward P/E

—

PEG Ratio

—

FCF Trend

—

Buyback

AI Thesis

MU gapped up 5.4% (moderate volume at 0.11× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 46/100 (Gap: 39, Volume: 25, Earnings: 65, Technical: 57). Trade Probability: 54% P(win) [MEDIUM] — expected +0.7% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 0.1× avg: weak conviction (31.8% historical WR); Tight 0.45% risk: quality setup. The gap quality is modest — institutional conviction is uncertain. Volume signal is weak — either too low (no conviction) or extreme (exhaustion). Historical win rate drops to 31-45%. Modest EPS beat of 5.9% — the gap may be overextending.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Sep 23, 2026

Catalysts

Gap of 5.4%
EPS surprise of 5.9%

Risks

Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
Sector rotation risk
Volume below average — weak confirmation

Technical Setup

Setup Type

Failed Gap

Entry Price

—

Stop Loss

—

vs SMA 200

Above

SMA 50

$931.63

SMA 200

$648.33

EMA 10

$1002.11

Forward Returns

1-Day

-1.8%

5-Day

-3.2%

20-Day

—

60-Day

—

Max Gain

+0.8%

Max Drawdown

-8.0%

Outcomes calculated Oct 7, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain

Confidence53%

Days Tracked5/5

Pump & Dump Score28.0

Rerating Score32.0

Gap Fill

79%

Vol Decay

-41%

Max Drawdown

-5.4%

Max Gain

+1.6%

Peak Close

Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

Day	Close	High	Low	Volume
Day 1	$1080.53	$1081.04	$1044.00	22.07M
📍 Day 2	$1082.28	$1108.72	$1073.00	20.95M
Day 3	$1053.98	$1084.81	$1032.00	22.23M
Day 4	$1065.08	$1082.66	$1057.70	19.72M
Day 5	$1065.11	$1083.50	$1062.36	31.10M

Signal Breakdown

↓

Gap Fill78.7% erased

Gap 79% filled — price gave back most of the post-earnings gap

25w

↑

Volume Decay-41% decline

Volume sustained — only -41% decline suggests continued accumulation

20w

↑

Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2

Higher highs with peak close on day 2 — continued buying interest

12w

—

Max Drawdown5.4%

Moderate drawdown (5.4%)

—

Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

Analysis updated Oct 7, 2026