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ZWS

failed

Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation

Gap
+10.4%
IndustrialsEPS Jul 28, 2026

Price Chart

Range
ZWS · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
Prev Close
$49.31
Open
$54.44
Gap %
+10.4%
Close
$51.55
Day High
$55.00
Day Low
$50.74
Volume
2.20M
Vol vs 50d Avg
2.2x
Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite56/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)43
Volume Quality (25%)73
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)46%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected Return+0.7%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
34.50
PEG Ratio
2.30
FCF Trend
rising
Buyback
Yes

AI Thesis

Zurn Elkay Water Solutions is gapping up over 10% post-earnings, suggesting a materially better-than-feared quarter that likely featured margin expansion, synergy realization from the Zurn-Elkay merger outperforming expectations, and possibly raised full-year guidance. Wall Street likely had been cautious on ZWS due to concerns about softening non-residential construction end markets and macro uncertainty, so a strong print would force short covering and analyst upgrades. The 2.17x volume signal confirms institutional participation in the repricing, not just retail-driven momentum. The bull case for ZWS centers on its positioning as a pure-play water management company benefiting from secular tailwinds — aging water infrastructure, water conservation mandates, ESG-driven municipal spending, and the bipartisan infrastructure bill funding. The Elkay acquisition broadened the portfolio into drinking fountains and bottle fillers, creating cross-selling opportunities and cost synergies that are likely flowing through to the bottom line faster than modeled. If management raised guidance or demonstrated pricing power offsetting input cost inflation, this justifies a meaningful multiple expansion from what was likely a compressed valuation heading into the print. The key question for the rerating's durability is whether this is a one-quarter beat or the start of an upward revision cycle. With commercial construction backlogs still providing visibility and infrastructure spending accelerating, Wall Street may view this as an inflection point rather than a flash in the pan. However, at ~$54 the stock is pricing in sustained execution, so forward guidance commentary will be critical for holding these gains.

Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Jul 31, 2026

Catalysts

  • Merger synergy realization from Zurn-Elkay integration exceeding original targets and flowing through to EBITDA margins
  • Raised full-year 2024/2025 guidance on the earnings call signaling management confidence
  • Infrastructure bill funding beginning to hit municipal water project bids, driving backlog growth
  • Pricing power demonstrated through stable-to-expanding gross margins despite input cost pressures
  • Accelerated share repurchases or capital return announcement supporting EPS growth trajectory
  • Cross-selling success between legacy Zurn (commercial plumbing/drainage) and Elkay (drinking solutions) channels expanding total addressable market penetration

Risks

  • Commercial construction slowdown as higher interest rates delay non-residential build projects, crimping future demand
  • Input cost inflation in copper, brass, stainless steel, and resins outpacing pricing actions and squeezing margins
  • Merger integration execution risk — any sign of disruption or customer attrition from the combined entity would undermine the synergy narrative
  • Cyclical exposure to institutional construction (schools, hospitals) which is budget-sensitive and subject to municipal funding delays
  • Competitive pressure from larger diversified players like Watts Water or Masco in adjacent product categories
  • Valuation has expanded significantly post-gap, leaving less margin of safety if next quarter shows deceleration

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Failed Gap
Entry Price
Stop Loss
vs SMA 200
SMA 50
$48.30
SMA 200
EMA 10
$48.89

Forward Returns

1-Day
-7.9%
5-Day
-3.1%
20-Day
60-Day
Max Gain
-1.8%
Max Drawdown
-9.8%

Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain
Confidence58%
Days Tracked5/5
Pump & Dump Score14.5
Rerating Score20.0
Gap Fill
64%
Vol Decay
57%
Max Drawdown
-4.7%
Max Gain
+3.7%
Peak Close
Day 4

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$50.12$53.00$49.111.75M
Day 2$50.51$51.16$49.941.13M
Day 3$51.20$51.72$50.83980.8K
📍 Day 4$53.18$53.19$51.27910.7K
Day 5$52.76$53.48$52.73759.2K

Signal Breakdown

Gap Fill63.8% erased

Gap partially filled (64%) — ambiguous

8w
Volume Decay57% decline

Moderate volume decline (57%)

4w
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 4

Higher highs with peak close on day 4 — continued buying interest

20w
Max Drawdown4.7%

Moderate drawdown (4.7%)

3w
Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

0w

Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026