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MCK

failed

McKesson Corporation

Gap
+5.9%
HealthcareEPS Jul 27, 2026

Price Chart

Range
MCK · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
Prev Close
$850.06
Open
$900.00
Gap %
+5.9%
Close
$896.63
Day High
$900.30
Day Low
$887.61
Volume
87.9K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.1x

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite43/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)45
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)27%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected Return-2.0%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
19.50
PEG Ratio
1.15
FCF Trend
rising
Buyback
Yes

AI Thesis

McKesson's 5.9% gap up signals Wall Street is repricing the stock on the strength of its diversified healthcare distribution and specialty pharma growth engine. The company has been successfully pivoting beyond low-margin wholesale drug distribution toward higher-value oncology services (via US Oncology Network), prescription technology solutions, and medical-surgical segments — all of which carry materially better economics. A beat-and-raise quarter at this scale likely confirms that structural tailwinds — including GLP-1 volume growth, branded specialty drug expansion, and ongoing Medicare Part D redesign benefits — are flowing through to the bottom line faster than the Street had modeled. The magnitude of this gap also reflects MCK's consistent track record of capital return discipline. McKesson is one of the most aggressive buyback executors in healthcare distribution, typically retiring 3-5% of shares annually. When you pair sustained mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth with a shrinking share count and a relatively modest forward P/E (~19-20x), the re-rating potential becomes clear. Investors are likely recognizing that MCK is not just a legacy distributor but an evolving healthcare solutions platform with improving margins and a durable competitive moat alongside Cardinal Health and Cencora in a rational oligopoly.

Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Jul 29, 2026

Catalysts

  • Raised FY guidance driven by specialty pharmaceutical and oncology services strength
  • GLP-1 drug (Ozempic/Wegovy) distribution volume driving incremental revenue and margin
  • Aggressive share repurchase program reducing share count and boosting EPS
  • US Oncology Network expansion improving segment mix toward higher-margin services
  • Prescription Technology Solutions segment showing accelerating growth
  • Potential Medicare Part D redesign tailwinds benefiting pharmacy services

Risks

  • Opioid litigation overhang persists despite large settlement payments already made
  • Drug pricing reform and pharmaceutical manufacturer consolidation pressuring distribution economics
  • Customer concentration risk — top customers (CVS, Walmart) represent significant revenue share
  • Margin compression risk if branded-to-generic mix shifts unfavorably
  • Potential slowdown in GLP-1 script growth as supply constraints ease or competition increases
  • Large acquisition integration risks if MCK pursues deals to diversify further

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Failed Gap
Entry Price
Stop Loss
vs SMA 200
SMA 50
$781.90
SMA 200
EMA 10
$837.06

Forward Returns

1-Day
-3.8%
5-Day
-2.5%
20-Day
60-Day
Max Gain
+1.4%
Max Drawdown
-9.9%

Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain
Confidence50%
Days Tracked5/5
Pump & Dump Score40.0
Rerating Score40.0
Gap Fill
100%
Vol Decay
-15%
Max Drawdown
-9.6%
Max Gain
+-1.9%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$865.51$877.15$862.66990.0K
Day 2$856.19$863.55$843.72773.3K
Day 3$827.14$863.08$822.651.44M
Day 4$830.43$835.95$810.881.09M
📍 Day 5$877.23$879.48$840.401.14M

Signal Breakdown

Gap Fill100.0% erased

Gap 100% filled — price gave back most of the post-earnings gap

25w
Volume Decay-15% decline

Volume sustained — only -15% decline suggests continued accumulation

20w
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5

Higher highs with peak close on day 5 — continued buying interest

20w
Max Drawdown9.6%

Drew down 9.6% from gap close — significant give-back

15w
Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

0w

Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026