AADX
failedApplied Aerospace & Defense, Inc.
Price Chart
Gap Information
Score Analysis
Model 1: Rerate Score
Model 2: Trade Probability
AI Thesis
Applied Aerospace & Defense (AADX) gapped up 6.1% on modest volume (0.98x average), which signals the move was likely driven by a thin float and limited selling pressure rather than aggressive institutional accumulation. The fact that the current price ($17.51) sits BELOW the prior close ($18.01) is a major red flag — it indicates the gap was aggressively faded intraday, suggesting the initial enthusiasm did not hold. For a micro-cap defense name with no available earnings surprise data, no guidance update, and no technical confirmation (no SMA reclaim), the rerating probability is low. Wall Street would need to see concrete evidence of a contract win, margin expansion, or a guidance raise to sustainably reprice a small aerospace/defense name. The defense sector broadly benefits from elevated geopolitical tensions and the U.S. defense budget trajectory, but AADX lacks the scale, visibility, and analyst coverage to attract meaningful institutional flows on a modest earnings gap. Without fundamental catalysts being disclosed, this gap looks like noise in a thinly traded name rather than the start of a re-rating.
Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Jul 30, 2026
Catalysts
- Potential defense contract award or recompense win not yet publicly detailed
- Broader defense spending tailwinds from FY defense budget appropriations
- Possible margin improvement or backlog growth disclosed in earnings release
- Small float dynamics amplifying any modest buying interest into a larger gap
Risks
- Price has already faded below prior close ($17.51 vs $18.01) — gap failure in progress
- Volume at only 0.98x average suggests no institutional conviction behind the move
- No confirmed earnings surprise, guidance raise, or SMA reclaim to anchor a re-rating
- Micro-cap liquidity risk — wide bid-ask spreads and volatile intraday swings
- Unknown market cap and limited analyst coverage reduce likelihood of sustained re-rate
- Sector competition from larger, better-covered defense primes (LMT, RTX, NOC)
Technical Setup
Forward Returns
Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026
Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through
Day-by-Day Price Action
| Day | Close | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | $18.86 | $19.10 | $17.76 | 999.5K |
| Day 2 | $17.31 | $19.25 | $16.91 | 1.55M |
| Day 3 | $17.36 | $18.20 | $17.33 | 1.13M |
| Day 4 | $18.70 | $18.92 | $17.71 | 1.30M |
| 📍 Day 5 | $19.22 | $19.69 | $18.32 | 908.6K |
Signal Breakdown
Gap 100% filled — price gave back most of the post-earnings gap
Volume sustained — only 9% decline suggests continued accumulation
Higher highs with peak close on day 5 — continued buying interest
Drew down 9.5% from gap close — significant give-back
No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality
Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026