ORCL

resolved

Oracle Corporation

Gap

+7.5%

TechnologyEPS Sep 10, 2026

Price Chart

Range

ORCL · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current

—

Prev Close

$152.94

Open

$164.43

Gap %

+7.5%

$156.88

Day High

$165.99

Day Low

$154.37

Volume

19.54M

Vol vs 50d Avg

0.6x

Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite56/ 100

Gap Quality (30%)48

Volume Quality (25%)50

Earnings Quality (25%)77

Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)45%20d horizon

Tier:LOW

Expected Return+0.7%

Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Model 3: Tail Probability (Runner)

P(runner)20.1%60d ≥ +20%

Tier:WEAK

Below anchored VWAP-0.0%

Frozen walk-forward logistic model (OOS AUC 0.64–0.68). Ranks the fat tail — many small losses, a few huge 60-day runners. STRONG tier historically hit ~44% (vs 25% base). A ranking tool, not a certainty.

Forward P/E

—

PEG Ratio

—

FCF Trend

—

Buyback

AI Thesis

ORCL gapped up 7.5% (Significant volume at 0.62× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 56/100 (Gap: 48, Volume: 50, Earnings: 77, Technical: 50). Trade Probability: 45% P(win) [LOW] — expected +0.7% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 0.6× avg: weak conviction (31.8% historical WR); Wide 1.60% risk: volatile setup. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary. EPS beat of 38.0% provides fundamental support for the reprice.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Sep 11, 2026

Catalysts

Gap of 7.5%
EPS surprise of 38.0%

Risks

Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
Sector rotation risk
Volume below average — weak confirmation

Technical Setup

Setup Type

Failed Gap

Entry Price

—

Stop Loss

—

vs SMA 200

Below

SMA 50

$140.76

SMA 200

$166.85

EMA 10

$154.25

Forward Returns

1-Day

-11.9%

5-Day

-10.2%

20-Day

—

60-Day

—

Max Gain

-6.6%

Max Drawdown

-18.8%

Outcomes calculated Sep 25, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain

Confidence57%

Days Tracked5/5

Pump & Dump Score40.0

Rerating Score52.0

Gap Fill

100%

Vol Decay

Max Drawdown

-11.4%

Max Gain

+-3.1%

Peak Close

Day 4

Day-by-Day Price Action

Day	Close	High	Low	Volume
Day 1	$144.79	$145.33	$141.01	42.16M
Day 2	$140.35	$144.88	$140.02	31.55M
Day 3	$143.16	$146.52	$139.00	34.37M
📍 Day 4	$150.59	$152.00	$146.15	27.74M
Day 5	$147.61	$150.90	$144.40	39.32M

Signal Breakdown

↓

Gap Fill100.0% erased

Gap 100% filled — price gave back most of the post-earnings gap

25w

↑

Volume Decay7% decline

Volume sustained — only 7% decline suggests continued accumulation

20w

↑

Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 4

Higher highs with peak close on day 4 — continued buying interest

20w

↓

Max Drawdown11.4%

Drew down 11.4% from gap close — significant give-back

15w

↑

Fundamental QualityEPS beat 38.0%

Strong EPS beat of 38.0% justifies the reprice

12w

Analysis updated Sep 25, 2026