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IOT

resolved

Samsara Inc.

Gap
+15.9%
TechnologyEPS Sep 3, 2026

Price Chart

Range
IOT · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
—
Prev Close
$38.75
Open
$44.90
Gap %
+15.9%
Close
$41.41
Day High
$45.09
Day Low
$41.20
Volume
4.81M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.9x
Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite64/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)51
Volume Quality (25%)70
Earnings Quality (25%)77
Technical Context (20%)62

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)41%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected Return+0.0%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Model 3: Tail Probability (Runner)

P(runner)28.8%60d ≥ +20%
Tier:MODERATE
Below anchored VWAP+0.0%
Frozen walk-forward logistic model (OOS AUC 0.64–0.68). Ranks the fat tail — many small losses, a few huge 60-day runners. STRONG tier historically hit ~44% (vs 25% base). A ranking tool, not a certainty.
Forward P/E
—
PEG Ratio
—
FCF Trend
—
Buyback
No

AI Thesis

IOT gapped up 15.9% (Significant volume at 0.87× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 64/100 (Gap: 51, Volume: 70, Earnings: 77, Technical: 62). Trade Probability: 41% P(win) [LOW] — expected 0% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 0.9× avg: weak conviction (31.8% historical WR); Tight 0.51% risk: quality setup; Gap candle range 8.7%: high volatility. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary. Volume is in the sweet spot (1.0-2.0× average) — historically this tier has 62.7% win rate. EPS beat of 65.6% provides fundamental support for the reprice.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Sep 4, 2026

Catalysts

  • Gap of 15.9%
  • EPS surprise of 65.6%

Risks

  • Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
  • Sector rotation risk
  • Large gap increases mean-reversion risk
  • Volume below average — weak confirmation

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Failed Gap
Entry Price
—
Stop Loss
—
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$37.66
SMA 200
$33.66
EMA 10
$39.72

Forward Returns

1-Day
-10.6%
5-Day
-4.4%
20-Day
—
60-Day
—
Max Gain
-3.8%
Max Drawdown
-16.9%

Outcomes calculated Sep 18, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain
Confidence57%
Days Tracked5/5
Pump & Dump Score40.0
Rerating Score52.0
Gap Fill
100%
Vol Decay
6%
Max Drawdown
-9.9%
Max Gain
+4.3%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$40.15$40.79$38.7410.73M
Day 2$38.65$39.60$37.3110.76M
Day 3$38.44$39.75$37.906.17M
Day 4$38.38$39.38$37.766.75M
📍 Day 5$42.91$43.19$38.9710.10M

Signal Breakdown

↓
Gap Fill100.0% erased

Gap 100% filled — price gave back most of the post-earnings gap

25w
↑
Volume Decay6% decline

Volume sustained — only 6% decline suggests continued accumulation

20w
↑
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5

Higher highs with peak close on day 5 — continued buying interest

20w
↓
Max Drawdown9.9%

Drew down 9.9% from gap close — significant give-back

15w
↑
Fundamental QualityEPS beat 65.6%

Strong EPS beat of 65.6% justifies the reprice

12w

Analysis updated Sep 18, 2026