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EFX

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EFX

Gap
+5.2%
EPS Jul 23, 2026

Price Chart

Range
EFX · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
Prev Close
$166.72
Open
$175.35
Gap %
+5.2%
Close
$177.31
Day High
$180.72
Day Low
$174.73
Volume
2.00M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.1x
Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite57/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)35
Volume Quality (25%)84
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)67%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected Return+1.3%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
23.50
PEG Ratio
1.80
FCF Trend
rising
Buyback
Yes

AI Thesis

Equifax (EFX) gapping up ~5% post-earnings likely reflects accelerating momentum in its Workforce Solutions segment, which has been the company's highest-margin and fastest-growing business driven by employer demand for income and employment verification services. Investors have been waiting for confirmation that the cloud transformation (Efx Cloud) is translating into tangible margin leverage and operating efficiency, and any commentary suggesting expanding margins or accelerating cross-sell into mortgage and verification markets would be a meaningful positive. The 5.2% gap on highly significant volume suggests institutional repositioning rather than retail-driven movement, indicating that large investors are repricing the stock's earnings power higher. The broader thesis for EFX centers on its transition from a traditional credit bureau to a more diversified data and analytics platform. With mortgage-related revenue pressures potentially stabilizing or inflecting — particularly if origination volumes show signs of recovery — Wall Street may be modeling stronger revenue growth and multiple expansion. The stock's proximity to its 50-day SMA ($165.65) and the gap above the 10-day EMA ($172.50) suggests the move broke through near-term resistance, which could attract momentum and technical buyers. If management raised guidance or signaled confidence in the back half, the rerating could have legs given EFX's historically strong free cash flow generation and capital return program.

Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Jul 28, 2026

Catalysts

  • Workforce Solutions revenue accelerating above consensus expectations
  • Cloud migration milestones driving SG&A leverage and margin expansion commentary
  • Mortgage market stabilization signaling potential revenue inflection in USIS segment
  • Raised full-year revenue and/or EPS guidance
  • Strength in International segment driven by Latin America and Canada growth
  • Continued or expanded share repurchase program signaling management confidence

Risks

  • Mortgage origination volumes remaining weak or deteriorating further, pressuring USIS revenue
  • Competitive pressures from TransUnion and Experian in verification and credit data services
  • Regulatory scrutiny on credit reporting practices and data privacy could intensify
  • Cybersecurity overhang from legacy 2017 breach reputation risk
  • Macro slowdown reducing employer hiring activity, dampening Workforce Solutions growth
  • Valuation already pricing in significant improvement, limiting upside if guidance is merely in-line going forward

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Pending
Entry Price
Stop Loss
$174.73
vs SMA 200
SMA 50
$165.65
SMA 200
EMA 10
$172.50

Forward Returns

1-Day
+6.7%
5-Day
-0.7%
20-Day
60-Day
Max Gain
+8.4%
Max Drawdown
-2.2%

Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain
Confidence55%
Days Tracked5/5
Pump & Dump Score14.5
Rerating Score12.0
Gap Fill
44%
Vol Decay
46%
Max Drawdown
-3.3%
Max Gain
+7.2%
Peak Close
Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$187.02$190.00$177.612.18M
📍 Day 2$187.05$190.15$185.231.60M
Day 3$176.13$182.09$173.311.79M
Day 4$172.62$175.72$171.511.18M
Day 5$174.11$179.72$173.991.18M

Signal Breakdown

Gap Fill44.3% erased

Gap partially filled (44%) — ambiguous

8w
Volume Decay46% decline

Moderate volume decline (46%)

4w
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2

Higher highs with peak close on day 2 — continued buying interest

12w
Max Drawdown3.3%

Moderate drawdown (3.3%)

3w
Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

0w

Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026