Post-Gap Validation
A validation & avoid-list tool: tracks whether post-earnings gaps hold over 5-day price action. For gap-ups it distinguishes pump-and-dumps from genuine reratings; for gap-downs it separates reversals (dip-buys) from continued selloffs (avoids) — so you know which names to stay away from.
Total Analyzed
69
1 pending
Selloff (AVOID)
30
43% of total
Reversal (DIP-BUY)
31
45% of total
Uncertain
8
12% of total
Forward Returns by Classification
Empirical proof the classifier works — for gap-downs, a negative 5d return confirms the AVOID read held. Averages hidden until enough completed trackers exist. (min 5).
| Classification | 5d Return | 20d Return | 5d Win Rate | Tracked (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY) | +5.4% | +6.3% | 84% | 31 |
| 🚫 Selloff (AVOID) | -7.1% | -10.1% | 7% | 30 |
| ⚠️ Uncertain | +0.6% | -0.7% | 50% | 8 |
| Ticker | Verdict | Confidence | Gap % | Detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IREN IREN Limited | ⚠️ Uncertain | 59% | -7.3% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 59% | -8.4% | Aug 13, 2026 |
| LQDA Liquidia Corporation | ⚠️ Uncertain | 58% | -8.1% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| LAR Lithium Argentina AG | ⚠️ Uncertain | 55% | -6.5% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| RBRK Rubrik, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 53% | -7.5% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| PONY Pony AI Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 53% | -7.5% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 52% | -18.5% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| WOLF Wolfspeed, Inc. | ⚠️ Uncertain | 51% | -8.9% | Aug 20, 2026 |
IREN⚠️ Uncertain
IREN Limited
Conf 59% · Gap -7.3% · Aug 28, 2026
PAAS⚠️ Uncertain
Pan American Silver Corp.
Conf 59% · Gap -8.4% · Aug 13, 2026
LQDA⚠️ Uncertain
Liquidia Corporation
Conf 58% · Gap -8.1% · Aug 12, 2026
LAR⚠️ Uncertain
Lithium Argentina AG
Conf 55% · Gap -6.5% · Aug 11, 2026
RBRK⚠️ Uncertain
Rubrik, Inc.
Conf 53% · Gap -7.5% · Aug 28, 2026
PONY⚠️ Uncertain
Pony AI Inc.
Conf 53% · Gap -7.5% · Aug 18, 2026
COO⚠️ Uncertain
The Cooper Companies, Inc.
Conf 52% · Gap -18.5% · Sep 10, 2026
WOLF⚠️ Uncertain
Wolfspeed, Inc.
Conf 51% · Gap -8.9% · Aug 20, 2026
How It Works
Gap Ups
🚫 Pump & Dump
- • Gap fills >70% within 5 days
- • Volume decays >60% (no follow-through)
- • Lower highs pattern (distribution)
- • Max drawdown >8% from gap close
✅ Genuine Rerating
- • Gap holds (<20% fill)
- • Volume sustained (<30% decay)
- • Higher highs, peak close day 4-5
- • Strong EPS beat or guidance raise
Gap Downs
✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
- • Recovered >70% of the down-gap
- • Selling volume decayed (panic exhausted)
- • Higher lows held above the capitulation low
- • Minimal further downside (<2%)
🚫 Selloff (AVOID)
- • Recovery <20% — stayed down
- • Sustained volume (continued distribution)
- • Peak close day 1, lower lows after
- • EPS miss or lowered guidance supporting the de-rating
Signal weights (both directions): Follow-Through 25% · Volume 20% · Price Trajectory 20% · Drawdown 15% · Fundamentals 20%
Classification requires ≥3 days of data; full confidence requires all 5 trading days. ≥60% directional score = decisive classification, otherwise Uncertain.
Classification requires ≥3 days of data; full confidence requires all 5 trading days. ≥60% directional score = decisive classification, otherwise Uncertain.