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RBRK

DIP-BUY

Rubrik, Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-7.5%
TechnologyEPS Aug 27, 2026

Price Chart

Range
RBRK · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$107.02
Open
$98.95
Gap %
-7.5%
Close
$99.96
Day High
$107.37
Day Low
$98.16
Volume
2.09M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.6x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite46/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)65
Volume Quality (25%)52
Earnings Quality (25%)25
Technical Context (20%)38

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)61%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (26%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$99.96
Stop (gap-day low)
$98.16
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$84.82
SMA 200
$68.49
EMA 10
$98.67

Analysis

RBRK gapped down 7.5% (0.64× average volume). De-Rat Score: 46/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 61% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (26%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate. EPS surprise of 91.2% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 28, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-6.9%
5d Return
-6.3%
20d Return
+13.1%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain
Confidence53%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score42.0
Selloff Score48.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
61%
Further Downside
-13.9%
Max Recovery
+-5.4%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$93.04$93.51$88.695.42M
Day 2$88.40$94.00$87.603.26M
Day 3$87.18$89.58$86.023.23M
Day 4$92.14$93.00$88.903.91M
Day 5$93.67$94.61$91.772.11M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume61% decay
    Volume dropped 61% from day 1 — panic selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside13.9%
    Sank another 13.9% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 91.2%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal