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PAAS

AVOID

Pan American Silver Corp.

Mixed signals — conservative read

Gap Down
-8.4%
Basic MaterialsEPS Aug 12, 2026

Price Chart

Range
PAAS · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$52.38
Open
$48.00
Gap %
-8.4%
Close
$48.17
Day High
$48.90
Day Low
$47.41
Volume
1.32M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.3x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite42/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)49
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)54%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected 20d Return+2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (13%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDMixed signals — conservative read
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$48.17
Stop (gap-day low)
$47.41
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$46.17
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$48.77

Analysis

PAAS gapped down 8.4% (0.30× average volume). De-Rat Score: 42/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 54% [LOW] — expected +2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (13%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 13, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-1.9%
5d Return
+7.4%
20d Return
+4.5%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain
Confidence59%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score40.0
Selloff Score28.0
Recovery
85%
Vol Decay
-15%
Further Downside
-4.2%
Max Recovery
+7.9%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$47.26$48.59$46.914.42M
Day 2$47.94$48.50$47.084.57M
Day 3$46.44$47.64$46.174.22M
Day 4$50.13$50.53$48.735.90M
Day 5$51.74$51.98$49.345.08M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery84.8% recovered
    Price climbed back 85% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume-15% decay
    Volume sustained — only -15% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside4.2%
    Moderate further downside (4.2%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral