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PONY

DIP-BUY

Pony AI Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-7.5%
TechnologyEPS Aug 18, 2026

Price Chart

Range
PONY · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$8.14
Open
$7.53
Gap %
-7.5%
Close
$7.59
Day High
$7.65
Day Low
$7.15
Volume
1.80M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.5x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite39/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)35
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)69%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$7.59
Stop (gap-day low)
$7.15
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$7.56
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$8.01

Analysis

PONY gapped down 7.5% (0.49× average volume). De-Rat Score: 39/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 69% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 18, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+3.2%
5d Return
-0.7%
20d Return
-13.7%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain
Confidence53%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score28.0
Selloff Score32.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
26%
Further Downside
-3.8%
Max Recovery
+9.6%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$7.83$8.05$7.455.56M
Day 2$7.74$8.28$7.626.80M
Day 3$8.23$8.32$7.783.52M
Day 4$7.55$7.98$7.405.96M
Day 5$7.54$7.56$7.304.09M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume26% decay
    Volume sustained — only 26% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside3.8%
    Moderate further downside (3.8%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral