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WOLF

DIP-BUY

Wolfspeed, Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-8.9%
TechnologyEPS Aug 19, 2026

Price Chart

Range
WOLF · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$29.09
Open
$26.50
Gap %
-8.9%
Close
$26.19
Day High
$28.66
Day Low
$25.41
Volume
1.55M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.3x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite43/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)59
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)42

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)85%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+8.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Deeply below SMA50 (-18%): oversold mean-reversion — 77-82% historical bounce rate
  • Wide 12% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$26.19
Stop (gap-day low)
$25.41
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$35.29
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$29.70

Analysis

WOLF gapped down 8.9% (0.32× average volume). De-Rat Score: 43/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 85% [HIGH] — expected +8% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Deeply below SMA50 (-18%): oversold mean-reversion — 77-82% historical bounce rate; Wide 12% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 20, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-1.6%
5d Return
+2.9%
20d Return
-2.3%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain
Confidence51%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score23.5
Selloff Score23.0
Recovery
26%
Vol Decay
48%
Further Downside
-10.8%
Max Recovery
+6.1%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$25.76$27.80$25.443.87M
Day 2$24.76$25.50$23.373.53M
Day 3$25.29$25.74$24.641.99M
Day 4$26.93$27.50$25.503.11M
Day 5$26.95$27.65$26.312.00M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery26.2% recovered
    Partial recovery (26%) — ambiguous
    neutral
  • Volume48% decay
    Moderate volume decline (48%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside10.8%
    Sank another 10.8% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral