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LQDA

DIP-BUY

Liquidia Corporation

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-8.1%
HealthcareEPS Aug 12, 2026

Price Chart

Range
LQDA · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$91.03
Open
$83.64
Gap %
-8.1%
Close
$84.89
Day High
$86.36
Day Low
$81.60
Volume
753.1K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.4x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite40/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)43
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)62%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (18%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$84.89
Stop (gap-day low)
$81.60
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$76.98
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$87.31

Analysis

LQDA gapped down 8.1% (0.39× average volume). De-Rat Score: 40/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 62% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (18%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 12, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-15.1%
5d Return
-11.3%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain
Confidence58%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score32.0
Selloff Score44.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
73%
Further Downside
-15.7%
Max Recovery
+-4.8%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$72.10$80.83$71.864.33M
Day 2$74.44$76.90$71.532.52M
Day 3$77.70$77.93$73.001.52M
Day 4$74.33$76.77$72.831.45M
Day 5$75.33$76.65$73.291.16M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume73% decay
    Volume dropped 73% from day 1 — panic selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside15.7%
    Sank another 15.7% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral