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IREN

DIP-BUY

IREN Limited

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-7.3%
Financial ServicesEPS Aug 27, 2026

Price Chart

Range
IREN · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$40.53
Open
$37.59
Gap %
-7.3%
Close
$37.53
Day High
$38.05
Day Low
$36.79
Volume
12.16M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.3x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite45/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)48
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)53
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)82%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+8.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$37.53
Stop (gap-day low)
$36.79
vs SMA 200
Below
SMA 50
$41.66
SMA 200
$45.95
EMA 10
$40.57

Analysis

IREN gapped down 7.3% (0.28× average volume). De-Rat Score: 45/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 82% [HIGH] — expected +8% over 20 trading days. EPS surprise of -2.5% (miss).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 28, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-1.1%
5d Return
+19.1%
20d Return
+11.2%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain
Confidence59%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score40.0
Selloff Score28.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
9%
Further Downside
-6.4%
Max Recovery
+19.2%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$37.12$37.32$35.5139.69M
Day 2$36.82$37.26$35.1433.56M
Day 3$39.60$39.71$35.7640.65M
Day 4$41.65$41.82$39.0344.99M
Day 5$44.68$44.74$41.0036.27M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume9% decay
    Volume sustained — only 9% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside6.4%
    Moderate further downside (6.4%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral