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LAR

DIP-BUY

Lithium Argentina AG

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-6.5%
Basic MaterialsEPS Aug 11, 2026

Price Chart

Range
LAR · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$7.10
Open
$6.64
Gap %
-6.5%
Close
$6.60
Day High
$6.92
Day Low
$6.46
Volume
453.7K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.2x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite40/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)46
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)48

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)85%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+8.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$6.60
Stop (gap-day low)
$6.46
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$7.66
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$6.53

Analysis

LAR gapped down 6.5% (0.25× average volume). De-Rat Score: 40/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 85% [HIGH] — expected +8% over 20 trading days.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 11, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+3.2%
5d Return
-6.7%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⚠️ Uncertain
Confidence55%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score14.5
Selloff Score12.0
Recovery
44%
Vol Decay
36%
Further Downside
-6.7%
Max Recovery
+7.0%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$6.81$6.95$6.622.92M
Day 2$6.75$7.03$6.672.41M
Day 3$6.82$7.06$6.761.93M
Day 4$6.60$6.92$6.511.80M
Day 5$6.16$6.53$6.161.88M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery44.0% recovered
    Partial recovery (44%) — ambiguous
    neutral
  • Volume36% decay
    Moderate volume decline (36%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside6.7%
    Moderate further downside (6.7%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral