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NAVN

AVOID

Navan, Inc.

Mixed signals — conservative read

Gap Down
-18.3%
TechnologyEPS Sep 10, 2026

Price Chart

Range
NAVN · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$25.89
Open
$21.14
Gap %
-18.3%
Close
$20.69
Day High
$21.22
Day Low
$19.64
Volume
2.46M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.8x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite48/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)56
Volume Quality (25%)64
Earnings Quality (25%)25
Technical Context (20%)43

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)53%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected 20d Return+2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Volume 0.8× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%)
  • Large 18% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDMixed signals — conservative read
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$20.69
Stop (gap-day low)
$19.64
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$27.08
SMA 200
$18.10
EMA 10
$26.32

Analysis

NAVN gapped down 18.3% (0.80× average volume). De-Rat Score: 48/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 53% [LOW] — expected +2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 0.8× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%); Large 18% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base. EPS surprise of 181.9% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Sep 10, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+1.6%
5d Return
+7.0%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score60.5
Selloff Score0.0
Recovery
35%
Vol Decay
46%
Further Downside
-1.2%
Max Recovery
+10.2%
Peak Close
Day 4

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$21.02$21.58$20.456.29M
Day 2$21.37$21.63$20.826.48M
Day 3$22.42$22.63$21.324.62M
Day 4$22.53$22.68$21.774.49M
Day 5$22.13$22.81$22.033.42M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery35.4% recovered
    Partial recovery (35%) — ambiguous
    neutral
  • Volume46% decay
    Moderate volume decline (46%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 4
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside1.2%
    Minimal further downside (1.2%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 181.9%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal