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ONON

AVOID

ONON

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-18.5%
EPS Aug 11, 2026

Price Chart

Range
ONON · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$38.78
Open
$31.59
Gap %
-18.5%
Close
$30.26
Day High
$31.75
Day Low
$30.11
Volume
9.57M
Vol vs 50d Avg
2.0x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite68/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)73
Volume Quality (25%)79
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)37%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected 20d Return-2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Large 19% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$30.26
Stop (gap-day low)
$30.11
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$37.19
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$36.32

Analysis

ONON gapped down 18.5% (2.03× average volume). De-Rat Score: 68/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 37% [AVOID] — expected -2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Large 19% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 11, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+2.5%
5d Return
+2.5%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score38.5
Selloff Score4.0
Recovery
23%
Vol Decay
43%
Further Downside
--0.6%
Max Recovery
+8.8%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$31.01$32.01$30.6117.00M
Day 2$31.59$31.59$30.4513.12M
Day 3$32.22$32.75$31.279.07M
Day 4$31.31$32.93$31.0810.18M
Day 5$31.03$31.62$30.849.64M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery23.0% recovered
    Partial recovery (23%) — ambiguous
    neutral
  • Volume43% decay
    Moderate volume decline (43%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside-0.6%
    Minimal further downside (-0.6%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral