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AEO

DIP-BUY

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.

Mixed signals — conservative read

Gap Down
-13.0%
Consumer CyclicalEPS Sep 9, 2026

Price Chart

Range
AEO · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$16.89
Open
$14.69
Gap %
-13.0%
Close
$14.62
Day High
$15.12
Day Low
$14.15
Volume
4.50M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.9x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite56/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)67
Volume Quality (25%)74
Earnings Quality (25%)25
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)57%20d horizon
Tier:MEDIUM
Expected 20d Return+2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Volume 0.9× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%)
  • Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYMixed signals — conservative read
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$14.62
Stop (gap-day low)
$14.15
vs SMA 200
Below
SMA 50
$16.96
SMA 200
$19.53
EMA 10
$16.52

Analysis

AEO gapped down 13.0% (0.92× average volume). De-Rat Score: 56/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 57% [MEDIUM] — expected +2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 0.9× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%); Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base. EPS surprise of 114.3% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Sep 10, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+2.7%
5d Return
+2.0%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score64.5
Selloff Score4.0
Recovery
36%
Vol Decay
68%
Further Downside
-1.0%
Max Recovery
+7.2%
Peak Close
Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$15.02$15.10$14.4811.38M
Day 2$15.43$15.67$14.617.60M
Day 3$14.81$15.45$14.617.41M
Day 4$14.81$15.21$14.635.33M
Day 5$14.91$15.07$14.813.65M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery35.7% recovered
    Partial recovery (36%) — ambiguous
    neutral
  • Volume68% decay
    Volume dropped 68% from day 1 — panic selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside1.0%
    Minimal further downside (1.0%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 114.3%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal