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ASAN

DIP-BUY

Asana, Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-13.4%
TechnologyEPS Sep 3, 2026

Price Chart

Range
ASAN · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$10.09
Open
$8.74
Gap %
-13.4%
Close
$8.52
Day High
$9.01
Day Low
$8.32
Volume
2.31M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.4x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite48/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)70
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)25
Technical Context (20%)70

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)57%20d horizon
Tier:MEDIUM
Expected 20d Return+2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (20%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$8.52
Stop (gap-day low)
$8.32
vs SMA 200
Below
SMA 50
$8.42
SMA 200
$8.81
EMA 10
$9.59

Stage 3→4 break: this gap-down broke below the 200-SMA, confirming a potential distribution top.

Analysis

ASAN gapped down 13.4% (0.45× average volume). De-Rat Score: 48/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 57% [MEDIUM] — expected +2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (20%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base. EPS surprise of 20.8% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Sep 4, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+3.2%
5d Return
+13.4%
20d Return
+7.3%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence70%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score50.0
Selloff Score28.0
Recovery
73%
Vol Decay
7%
Further Downside
-5.0%
Max Recovery
+15.0%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$8.79$8.97$8.697.42M
Day 2$8.25$8.66$8.227.11M
Day 3$8.56$8.58$8.095.65M
Day 4$8.77$8.86$8.503.92M
Day 5$9.66$9.80$9.116.93M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery72.6% recovered
    Price climbed back 73% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume7% decay
    Volume sustained — only 7% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside5.0%
    Moderate further downside (5.0%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 20.8%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal