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HPE

DIP-BUY

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-8.2%
TechnologyEPS Sep 3, 2026

Price Chart

Range
HPE · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$51.83
Open
$47.60
Gap %
-8.2%
Close
$49.06
Day High
$50.09
Day Low
$45.70
Volume
11.13M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.6x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite48/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)49
Volume Quality (25%)49
Earnings Quality (25%)43
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)74%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+6.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$49.06
Stop (gap-day low)
$45.70
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$49.79
SMA 200
$32.95
EMA 10
$52.18

Analysis

HPE gapped down 8.2% (0.61× average volume). De-Rat Score: 48/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 74% [HIGH] — expected +6% over 20 trading days. EPS surprise of 5.4% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Sep 3, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+5.7%
5d Return
+26.2%
20d Return
+41.4%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence87%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score74.0
Selloff Score20.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
-29%
Further Downside
--4.7%
Max Recovery
+26.4%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$51.87$54.50$51.3630.21M
Day 2$55.89$56.03$51.6727.64M
Day 3$58.75$58.77$56.4130.06M
Day 4$55.08$57.77$54.9919.80M
Day 5$61.93$61.99$56.1939.05M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume-29% decay
    Volume sustained — only -29% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside-4.7%
    Minimal further downside (-4.7%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 5.4%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal