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TH

DIP-BUY

Target Hospitality Corp.

Strong bounce probability (oversold mean-reversion)

Gap Down
-6.0%
IndustrialsEPS Aug 10, 2026

Price Chart

Range
TH · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$16.51
Open
$15.52
Gap %
-6.0%
Close
$16.38
Day High
$17.53
Day Low
$15.02
Volume
1.61M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.3x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite57/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)37
Volume Quality (25%)90
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)48

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)85%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+8.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Wide 16% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds
  • Volume 1.3× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce)

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYStrong bounce probability (oversold mean-reversion)
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$16.38
Stop (gap-day low)
$15.02
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$17.48
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$15.99

Analysis

TH gapped down 6.0% (1.25× average volume). De-Rat Score: 57/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 85% [HIGH] — expected +8% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Wide 16% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds; Volume 1.3× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 10, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+1.5%
5d Return
+10.3%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score56.0
Selloff Score0.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
41%
Further Downside
-2.3%
Max Recovery
+10.9%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$16.62$17.29$16.051.97M
Day 2$16.14$17.22$16.111.04M
Day 3$16.27$16.73$16.00941.6K
Day 4$17.44$17.50$16.19703.3K
Day 5$18.07$18.16$17.501.17M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume41% decay
    Moderate volume decline (41%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside2.3%
    Moderate further downside (2.3%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral